Daily Edition
Friday Daily Edition — October 30, 2026
Q3 GDP grew 3.4% while September real spending was nearly flat; Amazon’s cash outflow and Intel’s weaker PC outlook widen the funding test; independent 49/12/39 outlook, two points to Bear. Base 49%, Bull 12%, Bear 39%.
Two points move toward Bear: one from Base and one from Bull, on Amazon’s funding requirement and Intel’s PC outlook plus monthly inflation and real-income pressure. Advance Q3 GDP grew 3.4% while September real spending was nearly flat and real disposable income fell; the Fed held 3.75%–4.00% with two hike dissents, the ECB held, and Canada raised to 2.50%. Equipment suppliers still generate cash — KLA’s free cash flow leads the cross-check — while consumer-device weakness tempers the demand story. The decisive test is conversion of orders into delivered output and cash, plus financing terms and real purchasing power. Today brings the September Employment Cost Index at 8:30 AM ET, after the 6:15 AM ET cutoff; Sunday brings a potential LA/Long Beach port-watchmen disruption risk, still only an authorization.