How We Build Our Market Outlooks
MI-FORECAST-PUBLIC | v1.1.0 | October 30, 2026
Evidence before probabilities
Our Base, Bull and Bear outlooks turn a broad flow of economic, industry and market information into a clear assessment of the next two to four weeks. We identify the most plausible paths, explain what supports each one, and specify the developments that would strengthen or weaken our judgment.
The process combines verified evidence with editorial judgment. The percentages express our assessment of relative likelihood; they are not outputs from a calibrated statistical model. Their purpose is to make our view explicit, understandable and accountable.
Three paths through the evidence
Base is the central path: economic activity continues unevenly as businesses and households absorb existing pressures. It can include resilient demand alongside difficult financing, elevated costs and selective market leadership. Being the largest individual scenario does not require a probability above 50 percent.
Bull describes a broader improvement: cost or financing relief combines with stronger demand, production or operating performance. We look for improvement extending beyond a few companies or a single market indicator.
Bear describes deterioration spreading into activity: supply, financing or payment pressures increasingly disrupt investment, orders, production or employment. We distinguish a risk becoming more concerning from evidence that its consequences are already occurring.
Each edition explains the specific conditions behind these paths. They describe the economic and operating environment, not simply whether a stock index will rise or fall. The separate six-month Market Read addresses a longer horizon.
Start with a defined information window
We establish the edition’s evidence cutoff and check when material information became available. Publication dates and observation periods both matter: a new release can describe an earlier month. Later news belongs in a subsequent assessment.
Research combines continuing coverage with fresh discovery across demand, labor, inflation, energy, credit, policy, corporate results, technology and supply chains. Industry and local operating signals help explain how broad developments reach actual businesses. We verify material claims and distinguish observations from interpretations and unresolved reports.
From evidence to an outlook
Weigh significance and trace consequences
We assess evidence by its reliability, breadth, persistence and relevance to the forecast horizon. We examine whether different sources provide independent confirmation or repeat the same underlying event. Headline volume does not determine a scenario’s probability.
The central question is how a development changes behavior. Higher energy costs, for example, may increase cash needs and financing pressure. Whether that pressure leads to delayed orders or weaker production depends on demand, margins, liquidity and the ability to pass costs through. We look for evidence along that chain rather than assuming every risk reaches its worst outcome.
Challenge the central case
We examine the strongest defensible opposing interpretation and identify what the available evidence cannot yet resolve. Each outlook includes conditions that would confirm or challenge the scenarios and watchpoints that make the next assessment useful. A convincing explanation must account for contrary evidence as well as supporting facts.
Assign and explain the probabilities
We compare the support for the three paths and assign probabilities totaling 100 percent. No fixed formula translates a particular headline or release into a predetermined number of points. The allocation reflects the combined judgment of the evidence and its likely consequences.
One-percentage-point increments allow us to express modest changes in that judgment. They do not imply one-point predictive accuracy. When the outlook changes, we explain whether new evidence, a different interpretation or a methodological change caused the revision. Earlier forecasts provide a record for comparison, not an obligation to retain yesterday’s numbers.
Read the numbers in context
A scenario probability should be read with its description, horizon and conditions. It is not a promise of investment returns. If an edition presents Base plus Bull and Base plus Bear, both combinations include Base: the two views overlap and must not be added together.
Keep the forecast accountable
We retain the original outlook and review what subsequent evidence confirmed, challenged or exposed as underweighted. Historical reconstructions and test editions remain identified separately. We distinguish this evidence review from formal numerical scoring, which requires outcome rules established in advance.
The daily outlook follows developments as they emerge. Saturday connects the week’s evidence and reviews expectations. Sunday adds historical perspective alongside its current outlook and the separate longer-term Market Read. Across the editions, the commitment is consistent: explain the evidence, state the judgment and make clear what would change it.